Hillary Clinton

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/6-7/8. Likely voters. MoE 4%.

General Election Trial Heat: Ohio Governor

Our new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll out of the Buckeye State shows what other polls (such as this week’s Quinnipiac poll) have also shown: Ted Strickland is going to have to expend a lot of energy to earn a second term as Ohio’s governor.

Strickland still manages a modest lead over former GOP Congressman John Kasich, but he is quite far under the 50% threshold of comfort for an incumbent. Furthermore, Strickland’s favorabilities are cause for concern: 44% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

Kasich can also claim that Strickland’s narrow edge is owed to Kasich’s own lack of name recognition: just 43% of Ohio voters had an opinion on Kasich (31% favorable, 12% unfavorable).

Of course, Strickland can also claim that Kasich’s numbers are artificially high, as he is undefined as a political entity. To be sure, Kasich might have trouble gaining votes as the Strickland campaign works to offer its own definition of what a potential Kasich administration might look like.

On the Senate side, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll mirrors Quinnipiac’s closely, as we see narrow advantages for both Democratic candidates over leading GOP candidate Rob Portman. The former GOP congressman and Bush administration appointee trails both Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

General Election Trial Heat: Ohio Senate

None of the candidates has anything close to universal name recognition. Fisher’s favorability spread is 36% favorable, 16% unfavorable. He is the only one of the three candidates that a majority of the electorate recognizes. Brunner’s favorabilities are similar to Fisher’s at 33% favorable, 17% unfavorable. Portman is an unknown quantity, but beloved by Republicans (46/5). Overall, Portman stands at 29% of voters with a favorable impression, with just 9% of voters having an unfavorable opinion of him. Worth noting: almost no Democrats have heard of him.

In the Democratic primary, undecided is the BIG winner here. Fisher has a nominal lead over Brunner, but nearly two-thirds of the electorate remains undecided (Fisher leads 22-17).

Barack Obama remains fairly popular in Ohio: 59% of voters hold a favorable opinion of Obama in the state, while just 35% of voters hold an unfavorable opinion. In a state with a flagging economy, these numbers could well be a sign that the emerging media meme that Obama is in the beginning stages of a tailspin might be a tad overblown.

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• Statement from the President on Senator-Elect Al Franken